Guess who’s going to win the NBA Finals? [EXCLUSIVE PREVIEW]

The 2012 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder tips off Tuesday night at 9 p.m. on ABC. The Heat’s big three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh take on the Thunder’s own trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. The teams played each other twice during the regular season with each team winning on their home court.

While each team has their own “Big Three” trio, all eyes will be on LeBron James versus Kevin Durant. Lebron was this year’s regular season MVP and Durant was the runner-up.This is the first time since 1998 (Bulls vs. Jazz, Jordan and Malone) that the top two in MVP voting have faced each other in the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder:

History: The OKC Thunder, formerly the Seattle Supersonics, relocated to OKC  from Seattle in 2008. Their first playoff appearance was in 2009-2010. Last year they lost in the lost in the Western Conference Finals to eventual NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks. The Thunder are coached by Scott Brooks, who has coached the team since 2008 including being named coach of the year in 2010. As a player, Brooks won an NBA championship with the Houston Rockets in 1994. The Thunder play in the Chesapeake Energy Arena and have the best home court advantage in the NBA, the atmosphere is as energetic as any big time college basketball arena. The Thunder’s mascot is Rumble the Bison.

Starting Lineup: PG Russell Westbrook, SG Thabo Sefolosha, SF Kevin Durant, PF Serge Ibaka, C Kendrick Perkins.

Notable Reserves: James Harden, Derek Fisher, Nick Collison.

Our Take: The Thunder’s lineup is as talented and complete as they come, but they are young and not very deep. This is their first trip to the Finals and the Thunder would be wise to lean on vets Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher, who have both played in and won the NBA Championship. Everyone knows how good Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are and they will need to outplay Lebron & DWade if they want to win it all. Fans are also finally realizing how good sixth man, James Harden, is. I predicted while he was at ASU that Harden would become the American version of Manu Ginobili and he has not disappointed. While he comes off the bench, Harden could start for every team in the NBA including his own, but he embraces the important role of the sixth man. Sefolosha, a swing guard/forward is known for his speed and defense which will be counted on this series. Serge Ibaka is a blocking machine and along with Kendrick Perkins, will be key to trying to stop the Heat, especially LeBron and Bosh, when they come in the paint. It’s easy to say Durant, Westbrook or Harden will be the most important players for the Thunder to win it all. However, I think the X factor in this series for the Thunder will be how Ibaka and Perkins protect the paint and how much extra they can contribute on the offensive end whether rebounding or scoring. Derek Fisher isn’t hitting as many big shots as he’s used to in the playoffs, but he provides important veteran leadership for such a young team, and when it comes to Fish, don’t count him out hitting a big shot during the Finals.

This lineup’s weakness, besides it youth/inexperience, is its lack of depth especially at the center/power forward position. If Ibaka or Perkins get into foul trouble, the Thunder will rely on Nick Collison, who is the only back-up big man who gets any real minutes off the bench this Playoffs. Collison has spent all eight of his NBA seasons with the Seattle/OKC franchise but is nothing more than a serviceable back-up. The torch in the Western Conference has been passed to this young talented Thunder team, but their youth and inexperience, along with the previous mentioned lack of big-man depth are the weaknesses of this team.

Miami Heat:

History: The Heat came into the League in 1988 and have made the playoffs 16 out of 24 seasons since joining the League. Miami won the NBA Championship in the 2006 NBA Finals and two players on that roster remain with the team today – Wade and Haslem. Last year, the Miami Heat lost in the NBA Finals to the Dallas Mavericks in six games. The Heat are coached by Erik Spoelstra who has coached the team since 2008, but has been with the organization since 1995. Miami plays in the American Airlines Arena and their mascot is named Burnie.

Starting Lineup: PG Mario Chalmers, SG Dwyane Wade, SF Lebron James, PF Chris Bosh, C Udonis Haslem.

Notable Reserves: Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Jones, Norris Cole

Our Take: The pressure is on the Heat to perform up to expectations finally in this year’s NBA Finals. The Big 3 came in before last season with the promise of not one, not two, not three, well you remember how many championships they said they could win during their introduction. After a disappointment in last year’s Final, the Heat need to win the title this year or there could be some major changes coming in Miami. LeBron James has been statistically having one of the top five best playoff performances in NBA history, but the two times we have seen him before in the NBA Finals, he hasn’t been able to win when it counts. They’ve mentioned his name along with the greatest players to ever play the game, but for this to be true, he has to win not just a championship, but multiple championships. If LeBron can’t get over the hump and win one, he may just be our generation’s Elgin Baylor. I think LeBron comes out focused for this series and plays well the whole series. Dwyane Wade, however, has to step up and play like he did when he was Finals MVP in 2006. The Thunder’s young guards could give him some issues, but Wade will be looking to outplay James Harden.

The X factor in this series is clearly Chris Bosh. It’s not known yet if he will start game 1, but barring any setback with his injury he should be ready for his normal minutes all series long. But how healthy is Chris Bosh? In game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, he was the key to beating Boston 7 and looked like himself, but is he fully healed and can he re-aggravate the injury? The Heat will need Bosh to be an offensive threat out there to take the Thunder’s big’s attention away. The Heat have their Big 3 all-stars, but they alone can not beat this Thunder team. Miami needs good solid series out of Haslem, who has played in the Finals before. They will also need Mario Chalmers to knock down a few shots, since they are apparently paying Mike Miller a lot of money to not do so. Shane Battier is older, but he is still a solid defender, can knock down a shot or two, and brings solid veteran leadership. Norris Cole and James Jones may see some opportunities to score off the bench. The big question mark for the Miami Heat besides what LeBron James will show up, is will the rest of the team outside of the Big 3 give contribute enough to help Miami win the series?

Prediction: I have gone back and forth on this for a while, but i predict the Oklahoma City Thunder will win in 6 games. In my pre-season preview, I picked the Miami Heat to win the NBA Championship, but I’ve realized that until he proves he can win a championship when it counts, I just can’t trust LeBron James to get the job done. I see LeBron having a strong series, but I see Kevin Durant matching him. I think Wade and Chalmers will be outplayed by James Harden and Russell Westbrook. I also think we will see an inconsistent Chris Bosh this series with Serge Ibaka for the Thunder having an exciting series. No one will be surprised if Miami does win this series, but I don’t think their Big 3 will be enough to beat a more complete Thunder team. It just wasn’t suppose to happen this way – Kevin Durant and the younger Thunder were not supposed to win a NBA championship before LeBron and the Heat, but I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

Posted by:

Justin Burkhardt